Saturday, April 21, 2012

Forecast: 4/27 - 4/28/2012

The long-range GFS model has been showing potential for severe weather/tornadoes towards the end of this coming's a quick overview of the situation.

For the 27th, a strong dryline is forecast to set up over eastern Colorado down through west Texas.

500mb jet aoa 50 kts isn't fantastic, but will support supercell storm structures. 

Bulk shear values at over 60 kts are forecast...more than sufficient for strong rotating supercells. 

Gorgeous hodo...definitely suggests the possibility of strong tornadoes.

Only limiting factors with the GFS are CAPE and the possibility of warmer temps advecting in at 925 mb and creating a capping inversion...GFS normally underestimates CAPE, though, so that doesn't appear to be an issue. The cap, on the other hand, looks like it may be an issue both on the 27th and the 28th...we'll see how it plays out.

Afa the 28th is concerned, the setup is basically the same. 

Dryline looks almost exactly the same...even in the same place as the day before! Biggest difference here is the hint of a low center developing in SE Colorado...if this happens, it should enhance directional shear in SW KS, especially. 

Again, an absolutely gorgeous hodo right on the SW KS/OK border...if this verifies, strong tornadoes will again be a concern. 

GFS is a bit more generous with the CAPE on the 28th...2500+ is more than enough to get sups rolling. 

In essence, while still a ways out, and subject to change drastically...a rudimentary look at the weather models are sufficient to show that a significant severe weather outbreak could occur late next week over the southern plains...I'll be on leave for a couple weeks starting this week, so I'll definitely be playing these setups! 

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