Sunday, April 8, 2012

Forecast - 4-14-2012

As per the morning's GFS runs, potential exists for a large-scale tornado outbreak Saturday, April 14th. Currently looking at a target just west of OKC...could shift as the smaller-scale models come into focus towards the end of the week.

Taking a look at the surface wind/temps map, two areas of interest pop out, associated with the lows centered in eastern Colorado and SW Minnesota.

Map of the surface moisture/dewpoints show a well-defined dryline extending from southern MN all the way south to Mexico.

Absolutely gorgeous sickle hodograph taken at 00Z just west of the OKC metro area. Bulk shear values and SRH (storm relative helicity) are going to be more than sufficient if this verifies.

Nice pocket of 2500-3000 CAPE (convective available potential energy) right in my target area...CAPE will be sufficient in the secondary area of interest in NC IA/SC MN, to boot.

In essence, Saturday has the potential to be a large-impact, dangerous tornado outbreak ranging from Texas to Minnesota. Attm, expecting to be just northwest of the OKC metro area Saturday afternoon...obviously, that could change as this gets closer to fruition. My official 2 week "chasecation" begins April 17th...will be chasing every setup!


  1. Keep me posted. I found your blog googling anyone with insight for Saturday. I used to chase in 98-99. Gave up on the whole thing for IT work, but still enjoy a bit of meteorology. Saturday looks exceptional as the bulk shear will increase significantly. EHI is roaming pretty high with a lot of different items.

    Will check back soon, keep us posted man, and good luck.

  2. Yeah, tomorrow really looks disturbing, honestly. Only real question is initiation time...could be after dark, but the llvl jet kicks in at 00Z, and the hodos just get insane. Either way, looks like an absolute classic large-scale tornado outbreak. You're right, shear and EHI are going through the roof.

    Going to be a tough chase day - that 500mb jet at 70 kts is going to have storms screaming NE. Thanks!