Wednesday, March 30, 2011

TX/OK/KS this weekend?

It's still a bit off, but Saturday/Sunday/Monday are starting to show some real potential for a significant severe weather outbreak, starting over the southern plains Sat/Sun, and transitioning to the Midwest/Ohio Valley on Monday. There is a possibility that the currently forecast high CINH values and somewhat unidirectional shear could limit the tornadic potential of the event, but, so far this year, the NAM has consistently over-forecast the CINH, and not gotten terribly close on the actual shear values...

Still working on forecasts and targets, but there is a distinct possibility that I'll be out in the field this weekend.

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